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How can predictive "likely to sell" scores be used without treating them as proof an owner will sell?

✓ Verified Last reviewed by AnswerStack Next review due Jan 9, 2027

Use the score to set the order in which you contact owners on a list your other filters already built. PropertyRadar's Likely to List for Sale score runs from 0 to 100 and ranks each property against others on the likelihood it is listed in about the next six months. An 85 outranks a 62. It is a rank, so it doesn't mean an 85% chance. Record the scores on the day you build the list. Six months later, count listings by score band to see what the ranking did on your own records.

What the score measures

PropertyRadar attaches four model-based scores to a property. The one people call likely to sell is labeled Likely to List for Sale. The help article says the models analyze public records, mortgage activity, valuation data and economic inputs. It also says the scores are for comparing and prioritizing properties relative to each other, "not to predict exact outcomes."

Two limits follow from that definition. The score is a rank, so it carries no percentage. And the event it models is a listing. A closed sale is a different outcome, and so is an owner's willingness to take an off-market offer. If either of those is your goal, you have to track it yourself.

The score has five named bands, shown below. A low band means a property sits near the bottom of the modeled range, and the article says a 0 does not mean a listing is impossible. A blank is different again. It means the model returned no value, so the property is unranked. Blanks are easy to lose, because a filter with only a maximum set leaves them out of the results.

One use is excluded. PropertyRadar's property and owner data page says the score is not a measure of creditworthiness, so it has no place in a credit decision.

Band Score range
Very High 81 to 100
High 61 to 80
Medium 49 to 60
Low 38 to 48
Very Low 0 to 37

Turning the ranking into a contact order

Build the list before you look at the score. Combining absentee, equity, vacancy and tax-delinquency filters, or whatever criteria define the owners you want, decides who is on the list. The score only puts them in order.

Then add the score. In PropertyRadar the scores sit in a Likely Transactions group in the Criteria sidebar, with Min and Max fields from 0 to 100. They are also optional columns you can add to a list and sort. Sort by the score column first and count the blanks, so those records stay in your totals.

Set a monthly contact capacity from your budget and fill it from the top band down. When a band holds more owners than the month allows, order that band by the criteria that built the list, such as equity or length of ownership. Unscored records need a place too. Slotting them alongside Medium, ordered by the list's own criteria, is one reasonable choice.

Suppose an agent farms 2,000 owner-occupied homes across two ZIP codes and can afford 300 mail pieces a month. If 300 homes score Very High, month one mails that whole band. Month two takes the 300 High-band homes with the longest ownership, and the rest of that band leads month three.

Write one message for every band. A letter to a Very High owner should read the same as a letter to a Medium owner, because the score says nothing about what that owner has decided.

Keeping a record of the score you acted on

Scores are updated monthly, and each one carries an as-of date showing when the model last ran for that property. A record that was an 84 when you mailed it can be a 71 at the six-month check. So the measurement needs the score, or at least the band, from the day you built the list.

There are two ways to capture it. The help article says scores are available as fields in the public API on the properties endpoint, and that file exports, third-party integrations and webhooks are not included in this version. With API access, pull the score for every parcel in the segment and store it with the APN. Inside the app, filter the segment to each band's Min and Max and save each result as a static list named with the band and the date. Dated band lists preserve which parcels were in each band that day, which is enough for the test below. They don't store the numeric score or its as-of date.

Keep one row per parcel, blanks included. Record the APN and county, the build date, the score and band at build, whether and when you contacted the owner, and whether the property was listed within six months. Add a column for owner response or closed sale if that is your goal.

Next month's contact order can follow the updated scores. The measurement keeps every parcel in the band it held on the build date.

Checking the ranking against six months of listings

Three calculations do the work. A band's listing rate is its parcels that listed within six months, divided by all its parcels at the build date. Lift is that rate divided by the rate for the whole segment. Capture is the band's listings divided by all listings in the segment.

How you contacted the bands affects what the numbers mean. If the top band gets mail and the lower bands get none, the listing rates combine the ranking with the effect of the mail. To compare the bands fairly, contact every band the same way during the test, so each rate reflects the ranking under the same outreach. To see the ranking with no outreach in it, hold back a randomly chosen uncontacted group in each band and measure that group.

Suppose the agent's 2,000-home segment produces 60 listings in six months, a 3.0% segment rate, distributed as in the table below.

Band at build Parcels Listed in six months Listing rate Lift
Very High 300 24 8.0% 2.7
High 420 17 4.0% 1.3
Medium 380 9 2.4% 0.8
Low and Very Low 780 7 0.9% 0.3
No score 120 3 2.5% 0.8
Segment 2,000 60 3.0% 1.0

What the example shows

In this example the ranking works, and the top band is still mostly owners who did not list. The Very High band lists at 2.7 times the segment rate. It holds 40% of the listings in 15% of the parcels. Yet 276 of its 300 owners did not list. Google's machine learning course calls that 8.0% figure precision, the share of a model's positive calls that turn out positive. A ranking can be useful at a precision that low, because it still moves the mail toward the homes more likely to list.

Read your own table the same way. A rate that falls band by band, as it does here, supports keeping the score as the first sort. A top band whose rate sits about where the segment's does means the test found no advantage in contacting that band first.

Small counts move these rates. The Very High row rests on 24 listings, and three more or fewer would put its rate between 7% and 9%. Repeat the count on a second segment or a second six-month window before you move a large share of the budget.

A listing rate answers the listing question only. For an off-market goal, run the same three calculations on the owner-response column. For completed sales, run them on the closed-sale column. And to learn whether your outreach changed anything, compare the contacted owners in a band with that band's uncontacted group.

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